The Long Shadow of Natural Disasters: Childhood Exposure and Adult Political Behavior
- Programa:
- Sesión 2, Sesión 2
Día: miércoles, 9 de septiembre de 2026
Hora: 11:30 a 13:15
Lugar: Sem. 2
This paper investigates whether exposure to extreme weather events during childhood influences political preferences in adulthood. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) linked with regional disaster records, the study leverages quasi-experimental variation in the geographic distribution of natural disasters across German districts (Kreise) to identify the long-term effects of early-life environmental shocks on voting behavior. The empirical strategy employs a difference-in-differences design, comparing cohorts exposed to extreme climate events during childhood in affected regions with those in unaffected cohorts and regions. By following individuals from childhood – when their region of residence is directly observed in the panel – through adulthood, when voting behavior is recorded, the study evaluates whether early-life exposure to natural disasters leaves a lasting impact on political preferences, net of individual and regional characteristics. Preliminary findings suggest that childhood exposure to natural disasters has persistent effects on adult electoral behavior, suggesting that experiencing environmental disasters at a young age may increase climate awareness and influence long-term political behavior. This study contributes to the growing literature on the political consequences of climate events and provides insight into how early-life environmental shocks can lead to lasting changes in voting behavior.
Palabras clave: Natural disasters, childhood exposure, political preferences, voting behavior, climate change